Search results for “Modeling

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32 articles

High-Throughput Complex Disease Modeling for Ethical Drug Discovery: Clinical Relevance of a NAM Platform for Cancer Biomarker Development

May 2026 DOI 10.14302/issn.2572-3030.jcgb-26-6307

The development of tumor biomarkers derived from blood, or its components, has become pivotal in advancing early cancer diagnosis. Malignant transformations induce cancer-specific alterations in the transcriptome, proteome, and secretome of tumor cells. Recent studies highlighted similar alterations in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) in cancer patients, which appear to mirror the state of transformation in tumor cells. These findings suggest an intercellular communication–driven mechanism rather than a systemic inflammatory response and, in addition to current ctDNA-based liquid biopsy biomarkers, point to a novel, simple, and highly robust approach for the early detection of cancer. Using this phenomenon to advance PBMC-based biomarker development, it will be essential to achieve 3D in vitro tumor models that reproduce a highly physiological tumor microenvironment (TME). Likewise, more enhanced 3D ex vivo models are required to enable the replication of cell-to-cell and organ-to-organ communication. These systems will guide the self-organization of mixed microenvironments derived from different tissues and enable them to accurately reproduce the molecular connections underlying these alterations. In this study, an innovative new modular 3D co-culturing approach was used to expose PBMCs to lung tumoroids, under physiologically relevant conditions. Changes in DNA fragmentation of PBMCs in the presence of lung cancer were quantified and used as a biomarker. To validate the predictiveness of this biomarker, our results were compared with clinical data from a clinical evaluation study. Similar to the clinical trial observations, PBMCs, when exposed to lung tumoroids, showed a significantly lower level of DNA fragmentation (37%). This modular 3D co-culturing model showed a predictiveness of the clinical data of > 90%, demonstrating its power to monitoring cell-to-cell communication effects and support the development of blood-based biomarkers.

Model Based Research Open Access

A General Approach to Modeling Covid-19

Jul 2023 DOI 10.14302/issn.2643-2811.jmbr-23-4556

The present work shows that it is possible to analytically solve a general model to explain the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. First, the within-host model is described, and later a between-host model, where the coupling between them is the viral load of SARS-CoV-2. The within-host model describes the equations involved in the life cycle of SARS-CoV-2, and also the immune response; while that the between-Host model analyzes the dynamics of virus spread from the original source of contagion associated with bats, subsequently transmitted to a host, and then reaching the reservoir (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan ), until finally infecting the human population.

Nephrology Advances Open Access

Baroreflex Sensitivity, Cardiac and Kidney Remodeling and Deterioration in Vasoactive Substances Content in Blood in Experimental Model of Renovascular Hypertension. Action of Natural Flavone, Luteolin

May 2023 DOI 10.14302/issn.2574-4488.jna-23-4545

This study aimed to analyze pharmacological actions of phenolic compound luteolin on the renal and cardiac hypertrophy, blood pressure (BP), baroreflex sensitivity (BRS), levels of epoxyeicosatrienoic acids (EETs), prostaglandin E-2 (PGE-2) and endothelin-1 (E1) in plasma in the 2 kidney - 1 clip (2K-1C) model of renovascular hypertension (RVH). All animals, were randomized into 2 groups: control (normal) I - sham-operated, II- RVH male Wistar rats, which after 4 weeks of surgical intervention secondly randomized to control II group, treated 0.1% dimethyl sulphoxide (DMSO) and main group - with luteolin in 15 DMSO, 3 mg/kg body weight, intraperitonially, during 2 weeks. ET-1, EETs and PGE2 levels investigated in carotid artery blood plasma and analyzed using ELISA kits. All data statistically analyzed using the SPSS-10.0 program. In RVH rats BP increased by 32%, cardiac and right kidney hypertrophy and reduction in parasympathetic component of BRS by 40% and sympathetic by 39%. The plasma level of total trans-EETs and PGE2 in RVH rats decreased by 44% and 50% respectively, while the level of ET-1 increased by 67%. Two weeks treatment with luteolin lowered BP, improved parasympathetic, without marked changes in sympathetic component of BRS. Deremodeling of cardiac and renal hypertrophy under prolonged treatment with luteolin accompanied with increasing in the level of EETs by 44%, PGE-2 by 50% and markedly reducing of plasma content of ET-1 (by 60%). Inhibition of EET hydrolase using low doses of luteolin provides beneficial cardio and renoprotective action in experimental model of RVH.

Experimental Study by the Plan Composite Centered Method, Modeling and Optimization of Hydrogen Production by Alkaline Electrolysis

Apr 2023 DOI 10.14302/issn.2377-2549.jndc-23-4494

A planned experimental study on the production of green hydrogen by alkaline electrolysis is carried out by the Plan Composite Centered (PCC) method. The parameters studied are the concentration of the electrolyte, the distance between electrodes, the height of the electrodes, the total supply voltage of the electrolyser, temperature, and the electrolyte type. The results show that the effect of concentration, height, voltage and temperature are positive. However, the effect of the distance between the electrodes is negative. Electrolysis with potassium hydroxide (KOH) is more efficient than with sodium hydroxide (NaOH). The second-order interactions are weak, except for the voltage-temperature interaction which is significant. The results of the experimental study conducted in this work are in agreement with previous studies. Two a polynomial modeling (with KOH and with NaOH) suitable for predicting the flow of hydrogen produced are presented. Three optimizations of ascending constraints on the operating parameters to have a maximum hydrogen production and with a minimum of electrical energy and a minimum of concentration consumed are carried out.

Modeling of the Deposition of Low-Density Lipoprotein Particles inside an Ideal Geometry of the Heart Coronary Arteries

Oct 2022

In this study, flow hemodynamic parameters and settling of LDL particles in healthy ideal and ideal with stenosis coronary artery have been studied using the Open FOAM software. Not only the effect of movement of the vessel on particles depositions have been studied, but also both non-Newtonian and Newtonian behaviors of blood have been investigated. The particle's motion and deposition have been simulated. It has resulted that only in small vessels, non-Newtonian behavior of blood can be seen and in bigger vessels, there is no remarkable difference between two Newtonian and non-Newtonian models. Vessel movement has no important effects on entered shear stress on its wall, but the alteration in flow lines causes a 70% increment in particles depositions on a vessel with stenosis. This shear stress has no considerable changes with inlet velocity alteration, but it has intensive dependence on geometry in the vessel with stenosis (13 times more oscillation in stenosis location than a healthy vessel).

Mathematical Modeling of Covid-19

Jan 2021 DOI 10.14302/issn.2766-8681.jcsr-21-3701

Background The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) suddenly appeared in Wuhan, Hubei since December 2019, and quickly swept across China, then the whole world. Today, after more than 100 days of fighting against the virus, China's epidemic has been effectively controlled, but when we looking at the entire world, the novel coronavirus has rampaged globally, especially in the United States and many European countries. This paper mainly studies the impact of COVID-19 outbreaks at Hubei Province and the United States, fits the given data and predicts future trends. Methods Based on the theoretical basis of traditional differential equations and SIR infectious disease model1, and combined with the actual situation to improve the model. Hubei Province is modeled in different time periods, and the effects of birth rate and natural mortality on the model are analyzed. Since the birth rate and natural mortality in the United States in recent years cannot be found, the epidemic situation in the United States can only be analyzed based on the absence of births and natural deaths. Finally, we used Netlogo2 to establish a closed environment (Small World), and combined with known data to conduct simulation experiments on COVID-19 infection. Findings Through the analysis of given data through the SIR model, it is found that before the Chinese government has taken comprehensive measures to cure patients (before 10 February), the number of patients in Hubei Province will reach the peak at the end of February, and will gradually decline thereafter, and on 20 March, the epidemic will be effectively controlled in the future, which coincides with the fact that Wuhan closed the last mobile cabin hospital on 10 March. On the other hand, after the Chinese government tried its best to cure the patients (after 21 February), the number of patients continued to decline over time and will reach 0 in mid-April, which is also consistent with the actual data. According to the factors of birth and natural death, the sensitivity analysis of the above model found that when the epidemic situation is at its peak, it has little effect on the curve, but when the epidemic situation gradually flattens, it still has a certain effect on the trend of the curve. Finally, looking at the situation in the United States, due to the high transmission rate, the number of patients in the United States continues to rise and is expected to reach its maximum in mid-June. We also use Netlogo to simulate the environment in which the virus spread, and find that the general trend of the curves is also consistent with the actual curves. Interpretation The Chinese government has taken various measures to deal with the novel coronavirus pneumonia, including the establishment of two temporary hospitals and dozens of sheltered hospitals, the temporary transformation of university dormitories into isolation rooms345, the closure of Wuhan, the ban on the movement of people and so on. These measures have helped to reduce the spread of the virus and greatly increased the patient's cure rate. But the US government ’s actions are not as effective as China’s, not only because the government ’s actions are inappropriate and untimely, and the people’s opposition to isolation has not subsided. As a result, the virus has spread widely in the United States. More than one million people have been infected with the virus, and tens of thousands of people have died from COVID-196.

Structural Equation Modeling to Detect Predictors of CD4 Cell Count Change due to Long Term Antiretroviral Therapy Administered to HIV-Positive Adults at Felege Hiwot Teaching and Specialized Hospital, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

Mar 2020 DOI 10.14302/issn.2641-4538.jphi-19-2610

Background The relationship between predictors and the variable of interest was estimated using a structural equation model which is used to predict latent variables. The main advantage of the SEM is the ability to estimate the direct and indirect pathways of the effect of the primary independent variable on the outcome, given sufficient sample sizes. Despite not directly modeling the mediated pathways, GLMMs excluding mediating variables performed well with respect to power, bias and coverage probability in modeling the total effect of the primary independent variables on the outcome. In longitudinal studies, data are collected from subjects at several time points. The main purpose of longitudinal analysis is to detecting the trends or trajectories of the variables of interest. Methods A longitudinal study was conducted on 792 adults living with HIV/AIDS who commenced HAART. Structural equation modeling was used to construct a model to detecting predictors of CD4 cell count change. The procedure was illustrated by applying it to longitudinal health-related quality-of-life data on HIV/AIDS patients, collected from September 2008 to August 2012 monthly for the first six months and quarterly for remaining study period. Results The result of current investigation indicates that CD4 cell count change was highly influenced by certain socio-demographic and clinical variables. Out of all the participants, 141 (82%) have been considered 100% adherent to antiretroviral therapy. Structural equation modeling has confirmed the direct effect that personality (decision-making and tolerance of frustration) has on motives to behave, or act accordingly, which was in turn directly related to medication adherence behaviors. In addition, these behaviors have had a direct and significant effect on viral load, as well as an indirect effect on CD4 cell count. The final model demonstrates the congruence between theory and data (x2/df. = 1.480, goodness of fit index = 0.97, adjusted goodness of fit index = 0.94, comparative fit index = 0.98, root mean square error of approximation = 0.05), accounting for 55.7% of the variance. Conclusions The results of this study support our theoretical model as a conceptual framework for the prediction of medication adherence behaviors in persons living with HIV/AIDS. Implications for designing, implementing, and evaluating intervention programs based on the model are to be discussed.

Pharmacodynamic Modeling of Sunscreens: New Efficacy Evaluation, Risks of Sunburn and Melanoma and Very Low to Very High Sun Protection Factor

Mar 2020 DOI 10.14302/issn.2471-2175.jdrt-20-3274

Pharmacodynamic modeling of sunscreens was performed using a new concept of Skin UV Index (SUI) on the exposed skin as a parameter to evaluate the potential effectiveness of sunscreens against sun damage. The SUI predicts the UV heat intensity on the skin surface in terms of the solar UV Index at the time of the study and is calculated by solar UV Index/sunscreen’s SPF. SUI numbers for sunscreen with SPF ranging from 2 to 100 under a solar UV Index of 10 was used for illustration. Based on guidelines from WHO, Australia and New Zealand, sunscreens yielding SUI < 3 are assumed to be effective against sun damage such as sunburn and melanoma. Based on the above assumption, sunscreens with SPF > 4 were found to be effective when sunscreens were evenly applied at 2 mg/cm2. Review of numerous studies suggests that missing applications may represent a major, seemingly unavoidable, SPF-independent factor causing unintended sunburns for sunbathers in the US and other countries with a temperate climate. This might in turn become a major factor for causing exponential increase in melanoma incidence rates observed in the last few decades. For example, in an SPF 30 sunscreen study all 25 participants suffered unintended sunburns after one week of sunbathing. Also, a mean missing application of 20% of the total exposed area and a mean missing of about 50% of the time were reported in two separate studies. Simulations were also performed with under-applications of 50% and 75%. The present simulations may provide a rationale of why routine use of a low SPF 8 sunscreen was reported to be effective against melanoma in a 2018 Australian study. Based on model simulations it is proposed that in the US, SPF 8 sunscreen and SPF 2 to 6 sunscreen may be adequate for routine, unintentional use for sun-sensitive populations and non-sun-sensitive populations, respectively.

Mathematical Modeling and Epidemic Prediction of COVID-19 and its Significance to Epidemic Prevention and Control Measures

Mar 2020 DOI 10.14302/issn.2766-8681.jcsr-21-3719

Background Since receiving unexplained pneumonia patients at the Jinyintan Hospital in Wuhan, China in December 2019, the new coronavirus (COVID-19) has rapidly spread in Wuhan, China and spread to the entire China and some neighboring countries. We establish the dynamics model of infectious diseases and time series model to predict the trend and short-term prediction of the transmission of COVID-19, which will be conducive to the intervention and prevention of COVID-19 by departments at all levels in mainland China and buy more time for clinical trials. Methods Based on the transmission mechanism of COVID-19 in the population and the implemented prevention and control measures, we establish the dynamic models of the six chambers, and establish the time series models based on different mathematical formulas according to the variation law of the original data. Findings The results based on time series analysis and kinetic model analysis show that the cumulative diagnosis of pneumonia of COVID-19 in mainland China can reach 36,343 after one week (February 8, 2020), and the number of basic regenerations can reach 4.01. The cumulative number of confirmed diagnoses will reach a peak of 87,701 on March 15, 2020; the number of basic regenerations in Wuhan will reach 4.3, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Wuhan will reach peak at 76,982 on March 20. Whether in Mainland China or Wuhan, both the infection rate and the basic regeneration number of COVID-19 continue to decline, and the results of the sensitivity analysis show that the time it takes for a suspected population to be diagnosed as a confirmed population can have a significant impact on the peak size and duration of the cumulative number of diagnoses. Increased mortality leads to additional cases of pneumonia, while increased cure rates are not sensitive to the cumulative number of confirmed cases. Interpretation Chinese governments at various levels have intervened in many ways to control the epidemic. According to the results of the model analysis, we believe that the emergency intervention measures adopted in the early stage of the epidemic, such as blocking Wuhan, restricting the flow of people in Hubei province, and increasing the support to Wuhan, had a crucial restraining effect on the original spread of the epidemic. It is a very effective prevention and treatment method to continue to increase investment in various medical resources to ensure that suspected patients can be diagnosed and treated in a timely manner. Based on the results of the sensitivity analysis, we believe that enhanced treatment of the bodies of deceased patients can be effective in ensuring that the bodies themselves and the process do not result in additional viral infections, and once the pneumonia patients with the COVID-19 are cured, the antibodies left in their bodies may prevent them from reinfection COVID-19 for a longer period of time.

Systems Biology Open Access

Retinal and Cortical Contributions to Excessive V1 Neuron Firing Rate Variability in Schizophrenia: A Computational Modeling Analysis

Jan 2019

Excessive variability in behavioral performance and neuronal activation is a common finding in studies of schizophrenia. Recent evidence suggests that this may be due to an imbalance in the ratio of excitation to inhibition in brain function, or E/I imbalance. We used computational modeling of visual system activity to determine whether different potential causes of E/I imbalance would generate effects resembling those reported in schizophrenia. Three major findings emerged. First, reductions in retinal and lateral geniculate nucleus signaling initially led to increases in firing rate variability within the context of reduced V1 activation; however, with prolonged adaptation to weakened sensory signaling, compensatory hyper-activation in V1 neurons occurred, but variability was no longer increased. Second, direct increases in V1 excitation, or decreases in inhibition, led to the highest levels of initial activation but not variability; however, with prolonged inhibitory adaptation to increased excitation, overall activity was no longer elevated, but an increase in firing rate variability was observed. Third, the greatest fluctuation in firing rate variability, in response to the same stimulus across increasing contrast levels, was observed with reductions in sensory signaling, but only immediately after model perturbations; with prolonged adaption, the largest fluctuations were associated with increased excitation or reduced inhibition within V1. Implication of these findings are that schizophrenia-related increases in neuronal response variability may arise from at least two sources: 1) weakened sensory signaling and its associated low signal-to-noise ratio; and 2) compensatory but incomplete inhibitory responses to continuous increases in cortical excitation.

Model Based Research Open Access

Modeling of Talent Acquisition for Organizational Development

Jan 2019 DOI 10.14302/issn.2643-2811.jmbr-18-2539

In this work, we try to explain the concept of human talent with the help of some equations and models, which are not generated by any one previously. Here we also trying to explain ‘human talent is not resources it’s itself one of the great sources to find out all possible resources’. Because we cannot predict human talent directly, to judge it, we should have to adapt some methods for talent acquisition, which we explained with the help of models and equations. How human talent is one of the great source, if we want to know it, we have to observe human behavior, wits and intelligence strictly by working simultaneously with them. In this work our conclusion is ‘human talent natural and dynamic in nature’ and can be easily diverted to perform any task. Where as machine and technology has programmed memory, logics i.e. artificial intelligence (AI), and hence in result talent is fixed and constant in nature and only able to do repetitive and fixed task and also for proper handling and utilization of machines and technology need arises of human talent. In last only want to mentioned work is very useful in all HRM and OB practices.

Model Based Research Open Access

Modeling of Dynamic/Situational Leadership for Effective Entrepreneurship Development

Jan 2019 DOI 10.14302/issn.2643-2811.jmbr-18-2536

In this article we try to pay attention of readers, researchers and management executives how one can adapting situational leadership in another words dynamic leadership and enhance organization performance for goal attainment with high motivational leverages for effective team building and teamwork. We developed two models and explained how we should have to improve leadership qualities to lead business efficiently.

Model Based Research Open Access

Insight into Management Issues modeling for Perfect Business Simulation

Jan 2019 DOI 10.14302/issn.2643-2811.jmbr-18-2538

In this paper, I try to focus on widely growing field of Management Science; and that, “Modeling of Management Issues “. Now days Business Simulation techniques are used to earn more profit from Business and this is only issues control future course of actions properly. By using models we can predict & control future course of action & situation. Modeling is not a new subject. It’s oldest technique, but widely used in Physical Sciences, like Chemistry, Physics, Electronics, Engineering field, But it’s again become vital after some time in Life Sciences, like Botany, Zoology, Bio-Chemistry, Bio-Tech and Medical field problem modeling and now in current world it’s also become very vital in Information Technology and Management subjects. Here one question is always arise, why such a modeling is needed, and where and when needed, and answer of this simple question is, considering some simple problems like ‘ to find out the width of a river (But your are not allowed to cross it), find out the temperature (but you are not allowed to use thermometer), means try to find out any Quantity or parameter/variable without existence or entity of that, and if virtual situation satisfied by using modeling technique, we implement that virtual model for actual situation. In last I want to conclude modeling is the heart of any branch of Education, weather its science, Arts, Commerce, Medical, Information Technology, Engineering or Management and in summaries form I want to say this paper is nothing but one of the theoretical model, which is for modeling of Management issues for perfect Business Simulation.

Analyzing Students’ Opinions about their Learning Environments and Study Approaches with Bayesian Modeling

Jul 2017 DOI 10.14302/issn.2574-612X.ijpr-17-1543

Our own long term experiences as clinical teachers among undergraduate medical students have generated the interest to investigate the plausible connection between students’ study orientation and their learning experiences in small groups.The objective of the study was to assess the hypothesis whether learning in small groups may contribute to study motivation. Participants were 52 undergraduate medical students (10-12 in each group) in the primary health care course between 1st and 5th year during the spring term 2012. The questionnaires used were the Inventory of General studies (IGSO) for study orientation and IQ questionnaire for group learning. The data were analyzed by Bayesian network modeling. In this study, the application used was the Bayminer (www.BayMiner.com) non-linear visualization modeling software. Positive atmosphere in a small group increases study motivation and commitment and predicts mutual trust and gives space to new ideas, where contradictive views can raise interesting discussions. Based on Bayesian modeling it seems that the experience of motivational problems in the present studies may be an indicator of study alienation and connected with the perception of small group dysfunctionality.

Biocompatible Scaffolds for Human-Induced Pluripotent Stem Cell Transplantation and Modeling Post-Stroke Recovery in Three-Dimensional Neural Cell Culture

Jul 2016 DOI 10.14302/issn.2574-4372.jesr-16-1055

Human-induced pluripotent stem cells (HiPSCs) demonstrate promise in their ability to differentiate into neural cells and ultimately replace the cell types and thereby brain tissue damaged by stroke. This may diminish cognitive impairment due to stroke. Prior to transplantation, an appropriate scaffold must be determined to allow for heightened accuracy by facilitating proper adhesion, differentiation, and proliferation, increasing the likelihood of success, as will be defined in this review, in vivo. This paper aims to provide a review of available biocompatible scaffolds and their efficacy, to provide insight for future research utilizing clinical trials to study stem cell therapy as a form of post-stroke recovery. A systematic review of scaffolds outlined in full-text, peer-reviewed articles with unique experimental data, available on PubMed, will be conducted to determine an ideal scaffold, based on article and scaffold selection criteria best suited for the transplantation of human-induced pluripotent stem cells.

Diabetic Mouse Delayed Wound Model Following Treatment with the NerveStim™ Neuropathy System

Apr 2026 DOI 10.14302/issn.2640-6403.jtrr-26-6077

Delayed wound healing in diabetes is characterized by impaired angiogenesis, persistent inflammation, extracellular matrix dysregulation, and peripheral neuropathy. A preclinical study was conducted using a diabetic mouse delayed wound model to evaluate the surrounding tissue of a wound, (its periwound) and its tissue responses following treatment with the NerveStim™ Neuropathy System, a combination topical gel and neuromuscular electrical stimulation platform. Periwound tissue was harvested at Day 14 and analyzed using NanoString gene expression profiling. Treated animals demonstrated visibly increased periwound tissue thickness compared to untreated controls. Differential expression analysis identified 76 significantly upregulated and 17 downregulated genes. Upregulated pathways included angiogenesis (Vegfa, Fgf2, Pdgfb, Nos3), neurotrophic signaling (Ngf, Bdnf, Scn9a, Trpv1), macrophage polarization (Arg1, Mrc1, Il10), and extracellular matrix remodeling (Col1a1, Col3a1, Mmp9, Timp1). Downregulation of select pro-inflammatory mediators (Nos2, Mif) was observed. These coordinated transcriptional changes are consistent with activation of reparative immune, neurovascular, and matrix remodeling pathways in diabetic periwound tissue.

Model Based Research Open Access

Mathematical Modelling of Typhoid Fever Transmission Dynamics and Intervention Impact in Harare, Zimbabwe (2018–2020)

Dec 2025 DOI 10.14302/issn.2643-2811.jmbr-25-5731

Background Typhoid fever remains a significant public health issue in Harare City, Zimbabwe, exacerbated by recurrent outbreaks between 2018 and 2020. Key challenges, including inadequate water supply and sanitation infrastructure, high population density, and limited healthcare access, have intensified the disease burden. Understanding the key transmission drivers and assessing the impact of various interventions are essential for informing policy and health strategies. Objectives This study aimed to: 1: To predict future trends in typhoid fever cases Harare City typhoid hot areas. 2: To develop a mathematical model to simulate the spread of typhoid fever incidence under different intervention scenarios and recommend evidence-based strategies for reducing the disease burden in Harare City. Methods A dynamic compartmental SIR-based model, adapted from the Pitzer Vaccine Effectiveness (VE) framework, was employed to simulate disease transmission. This model accounted for both short-cycle (human-to-human) and long-cycle (environmental) transmission pathways. Data from Harare City (2018–2020) were used for model calibration and forecasting, and sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the impact of different intervention levels. Findings The model identified inadequate sanitation, contaminated water sources, and low health- seeking behaviors as primary drivers of typhoid transmission. In the absence of interventions, the model projected a sustained high rate of transmission. However, treatment and WASH interventions could reduce the disease burden by 50–60%, while combined strategies incorporating vaccination and education led to an 80% reduction in cases. Sensitivity analysis indicated that treatment and WASH interventions were particularly impactful at moderate coverage levels. Conclusion Mathematical modeling effectively demonstrated the multifactorial drivers of typhoid fever transmission in Harare. Integrated interventions that combine WASH, vaccination, treatment, and education present the most promising approach for long-term control of the disease. The findings offer a solid, data-driven foundation for public health decision-making and resource allocation.

Caregiver-Child Co-Rumination and Treatment Outcomes in a Randomized Clinical Trial of Rumination-Focused Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy

Nov 2025 DOI 10.14302/issn.2476-1710.jdt-25-5775

A number of developmental factors increase risk for adolescent rumination. This particular kind of repetitive negative thinking pattern often begins in the context of familial stressors and parental modeling. Though rumination can be effectively targeted with rumination-focused cognitive behavioral therapy (RF-CBT), it is unknown whether caregiver-child co-rumination (1) affects caregiver views of their child’s psychopathology, (2) or interferes with youth rumination- focused treatment. The present study uses data from a randomized clinical trial of RF-CBT to examine whether caregiver-child co-rumination, or caregivers’ own rumination patterns, are associated with bias in parental perception of their adolescent’s depression symptoms. We also examine if co-rumination scores at baseline moderate rumination scores for youth at treatment termination, and whether treatment effects dampen or decay more significantly post-treatment among youth with higher caregiver-child co-rumination. Youth (N = 76) were randomized to either 10-14 sessions of RF-CBT (n = 38) or treatment as usual (TAU; n = 38) and completed interviews and surveys at pre-treatment baseline, post-treatment, and 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month follow up. Results indicate that neither caregiver rumination nor co-rumination scores bias caregivers’ views of their child’s depression symptoms. In terms of reduction in child’s rumination scores, estimated treatment effects were larger for patients with higher baseline co- rumination scores, and there was no statistically significant difference in treatment effect decay over time in high versus low co-rumination groups. Results indicate co-rumination overall does not dampen the effect of RF-CBT, and those experiencing the highest levels of co-rumination may benefit most from treatment.  

Characterizing the Dynamics of Covid-19 Based on Data

Nov 2021 DOI 10.14302/issn.2691-8862.jvat-21-3991

The objective of this paper is to apply datadriven discovery of dynamics modeling to obtain a system of differential equations that allows us to describe the transmission dynamics of Covid-19, based on the number of confirmed cases and deaths reported daily. This methodology was applied in four different countries: Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela, and the United States. The main advantage is that only one differential equation is needed to characterize the dynamic of Covid-19 without any mathematical assumption.

Agronomy Research Open Access

Missing Heritability and Missing Co-heritability in Genomic Studies

Oct 2021 DOI 10.14302/issn.2639-3166.jar-21-3952

This methods‑focused review addresses missing heritability and co‑heritability in genomic studies, considering polygenicity, rare variants, gene–gene and gene–environment interactions, and phenotype definition. It surveys analytical strategies—from improved GWAS modeling to partitioning heritability and family‑based designs—to better capture shared genetic architecture. Recommendations emphasize data integration and robust inference to close current explanatory gaps.

Models and data Analysis of the Outbreak Risk of COVID-19

Jan 2021 DOI 10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-20-3383

With the spread of the new coronavirus around the world, governments of various countries have begun to use the mathematical modeling method to construct some virus transmission models assessing the risks of spatial spread of the new coronavirus COVID-19, while carrying out epidemic prevention work, and then calculate the inflection point for better prevention and control of epidemic transmission. This work analyzes the spread of the new coronavirus in China, Italy, Germany, Spain, and France, and explores the quantitative relationship between the growth rate of the number of new coronavirus infections and time. In investigating the dynamics of a disease such as COVID-19, its mathematical representation can be constructed at many levels of details, guided by the questions the model tries to help answer. Mathematical sophistication may have to yield to a more pragmatic approach closer to the ability to make predictions that inform public health policies. Background In December 2019 , the first Chinese patients with pneumonia of unknown cause is China admitted to hospital in Wuhan, Hubei Jinyintan , since then, COVID-19 in the rapid expansion of China Wuhan, Hubei, in a few months time, COVID-19 is Soon it spread to a total of 34 provincial-level administrative regions in China and neighboring countries, and Hubei Province immediately became the hardest hit by the new coronavirus. In an emergency situation, we strive to establish an accurate infectious disease retardation growth model to predict the development and propagation of COVID-19, and on this basis, make some short-term effective predictions. The construction of this model has Relevant departments are helpful for the prevention and monitoring of the new coronavirus, and also strive for more time for the clinical trials of Chinese researchers and the research on vaccines against the virus to eliminate the new corona virus as soon as possible. Methods According to the original data change law, Establish a Logistic growth model, we collect and compare and integrate the spread of COVID-19 in China, Italy, France, Spain and Germany, record the virus transmission trend among people in each country and the protest measures of relevant government departments. Findings Based on the analysis results of the Logistic model model, the Logistic model has a good fitting effect on the actual cumulative number of confirmed cases, which can bring a better effect to the prediction of the epidemic situation and the prevention and control of the epidemic situation. Interpretation In the early stage of the epidemic, due to inadequate anti-epidemic measures in various countries, the epidemic situation in various countries spread rapidly. However, with the gradual understanding of COVI D -19, the epidemic situation began to be gradually controlled, thereby retarding growth

Energy Conservation Open Access

The Interaction Model of Concentrated Solar Radiation with Materials

Oct 2020 DOI 10.14302/issn.2642-3146.jec-20-3551

The paper analyzes approaches to modeling the processes of interaction of concentrated solar radiation with materials. The experimental results obtained on the synthesis of materials from a melt in a solar furnace are presented. The features of the interaction of concentrated solar radiation with materials are analyzed. The mechanisms are described and a model for the interaction of concentrated solar radiation with materials is created. A feasibility study is proposed for the technology of glass-based glass materials obtained on the Big Solar Furnace.

Energy Conservation Open Access

Closed Electrical Transmission Line as a Ring Waveguide for Interacting Waves of Electron and Phonon Currents

Oct 2019 DOI 10.14302/issn.2642-3146.jec-19-3049

As a result of mathematical modeling it has been shown that any closed electrical line can be interpreted as a ring waveguide where the Fermi-Pasta-Ulam recurrences of the electron and phonon currents interact with each other on the transversal and longitudinal periodical structures of the line conductor’s crystalline lattice as well as on the structures of the wire insulation. An electronic circuit simulating the mathematical model through the dynamics of magnons and phonons in a closed ferrite core with two different coils switched into the shoulders of a multivibrator has been developed. It has been demonstrated that the interacting ferromagnetic and ferroacoustic resonances excited simultaneously in a ferrite core qualitatively correspond to the dynamics of the electron and phonon currents interaction process in a closed electrical line.

Genetic Engineering Open Access

Genetic-Mathematical Modelling of Mutational Processes in a Population

Jul 2019 DOI 10.14302/issn.2694-1198.jge-19-2756

Processes of genetic-mathematical modeling of a population development are considered. A basic distinction in the mathematical description of a family tree and a population is shown. In a family tree alternation of generations has discrete character. In a population there is a continuous alternation of generations. The method of the differential equations is applied for the description of a population. It is shown that mutational process in a population can be described with use of a Green’s function. For radiating influence on a population the universal evolutionary law is found.

Prevalence and Determinants of Metabolic Syndrome in Schizophrenia Patients Treated with Antipsychotics Medications

Feb 2019

Objectives This study was designed to assess the demographic characteristics, prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetSy) among patients with schizophrenia in Saudi Arabia. Methods This is a disease-oriented and observational study. Schizophrenia was defined by DSM-IV criteria. MetSy were assessed based on the international criteria (NCEP-ATP III and AHA/NHLB). Results 90% of the participants are without a university degree and 56.4% are single. Chronic and acute cases of schizophrenia were 95% and 5%, respectively. The treatment of schizophrenia was combination therapy and monotherapy with percentages of 56% and 44%, respectively. Systolic and diastolic blood pressures were 121.92±11.07 mmHg and 77.29±0.45 mmHg, respectively. Surprisingly, all patients have abnormal HDL. A mean waist circumference of 90.23±14.88 cm for men, and 93.38±15.28 cm for women. The analysis of 101 patients showed a prevalence of the MetSy is 15.8%. Chi-square test of independence showed lack of independency of MetSy on type of therapy. Modeling of MetSy and risk factors was also conducted. Conclusion The metabolic syndrome is greatly established among schizophrenic patients. It signifies a vital hazard for metabolic and cardiovascular ailments. Evaluation of the incidence and examining of the related threats of the metabolic syndrome should be an element of the clinical managing of patients cured with antipsychotics.

Increased Number of Megakaryocytes in the Synovium and Cartilage of Arthritic Mouse Joints

Jul 2018

Bone remodeling processes in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) depend mainly on the action of three types of cells. Osteoblasts are responsible for the formation of new bone, osteoclasts degrade mineralized bone and osteocytes regulate and maintain the bone homeostasis. Except, many other cell populations become pathologically activated in the inflamed microenvironment of the joint. The role of megakaryocytes and platelets in RA is poorly clarified. In the present study the presence of MK in the synovium and cartilage was observed in a model of arthritis induced in normal and complement depleted mice.

Modelling Development in Plant Anatomy

May 2018 DOI 10.14302/issn.2638-4469.japb-18-2127

Four rules for good anatomical modeling of plants are explored. First, the cell is the reference source for modelling at any level. Second, developmental signaling occurs between few cells, about 12. Third, rules of are algorithmic and not simply physical forces as proposed by Thompson. Finally, it is desirable to proposed a likely alternative model that can be discounted. The main value of modelling is selecting data for modelling rather than the by a biased investigator.

Prediction of Discharge Disposition in Geriatric Women after Traumatic Injury

Apr 2017 DOI 10.14302/issn.2474-7785.jarh-17-1483

Background: Discharge disposition planning begins at admission and is frequently one of the first questions posed to healthcare providers by patients and families. We hypothesized that pre-injury functional status would predict discharge disposition. Methods: We linked prospective data from the Worcester, MA cohort of the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis (GLOW) study and the UMassMemorial Level 1 Trauma Center Registry to determine predictors of discharge disposition for female geriatric (over the age of 55) trauma patients using bivariate comparisons and multivariable modeling. Results: 154 women of 5,091 in the Worcester GLOW cohort were evaluated for traumatic injury at UMassMemorial and were discharged alive either to their home (n=30) or to rehabilitation, skilled nursing, or nursing home facilities (n=124). The mean age was 79 years and the majority (99%) was white. There were no statistically significant differences in comorbidities or injury severity score between the groups. All women with femur fractures were discharged to a facility. The most common injury among women discharged home was traumatic brain injury. While univariate analysis revealed differences in pre-injury activity status, only age remained statistically different in a logistic regression model predicting discharge to facility (OR 2.61 per additional 10 years of age, 95% CI 1.62 to 4.19, p<0.0001). Conclusions: The majority of elderly women are not discharged home after injury. Pre-injury activity status was not associated with discharge disposition when accounting for other factors. It appears that physical function, which deteriorates with age, is a proxy for aging in older women at risk for osteoporosis.

Addressing Malnutrition Across the Continuum of Care: Which Patients Are Likely to Receive Oral Nutritional Supplements

Feb 2017 DOI 10.14302/issn.2474-7785.jarh-16-1398

Oral nutritional supplements (ONS) have been shown to improve patient outcomes in the hospital setting, but limited results from long-term care or community settings exist. Using electronic health records (EHRs) from 2009 to 2014 for both adult inpatients and outpatients, we compare the demographic and clinical characteristics of patients who received ONS (n = 1,251) with a non-ONS control group (n =25,513). Multivariable logistic regression modeling was used to describe and compare differences in baseline characteristics between the groups including age, sex, race, tobacco use, and comorbidities. We found that patients receiving ONS were older and sicker than control patients. Hospitalized ONS patients were more likely to be admitted from the emergency department and have a hospitalization within the last month prior to the index date. Our results suggest that there is a need for nutrition screening and incorporating nutrition status into the EHR as an important way to coordinate hospital and community medical care. ONS can be an important therapy for vulnerable populations in both the hospital and the community settings.

Changes in Gingival Crevicular Fluid Volume and Flow Rate During Orthodontic Treatment

Jul 2016 DOI 10.14302/issn.2473-1005.jdoi-15-921

Background: Gingival crevicular fluid (GCF) is regarded as a promising medium for detection of periodontal disease activity. bone loss is a major feature of periodontal disease, although we are unable to determine the time of this bone loss and therefore periodontal disease activity. During orthodontic treatment small forces are applied, resulting in bone remodeling which allows tooth movement. Orthodontic model may be used as a preliminary stage in evaluating gingival crevicular fluid role in bone turnover. Aims: To detect GCF and to monitor it's volume and flow rate following orthodontic activation, and to determine at what stage inflammation and bone resorption reach their maximum. Materials and Methods: GCF samples were collected from 10 adult orthodontic patients (mean age = 22.3 , range 20-24year) on 3,7,10,14,21,28,35 days after activation of orthodontic appliance, from the tooth surface where bone resorption was expected to occur. A total of 330 GCF sample were collected using filter paper strip, the volume measured by weighing. Results: An insignificant increase in GCF volume and flow rate was noted in the tenth day after activation of the orthodontic appliance activation. At 35 days GCF reached its minimum flow rate. There was considerable variation between subjects and between the same subject on different days Conclusion: Increase in GCF volume and flow rate reflects the effect of orthodontic adjustment rather than oral hygiene, as there were no clinical inflammatory changes during the period of orthodontic treatment studied.

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